The overlooked power of 2nd choices of 3rd-party voters in Biden-Trump battle

To think that the 2024 presidential race could come down to the “second-choice preferences of third-party voters.” LOL. I know. I know. It seems like a far-fetched pointy-head explanation of the November election but here goes.

Before last Thursday’s debate, third-party voters were President Biden’s secret weapon – electoral ammunition stored in the silos of Green Party nominee Jill Stein, independent Cornel West, and even independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.  The Biden campaign speculated – correctly – that as third-party voters were given a “binary choice” of Biden vs. Trump, they would opt for Biden more times than not and tip an even race to Biden.

But the assumption is that if only two candidates can win, just two should be considered by voters, even though thousands of votes are cast for third-party candidates in every presidential election, tipping the outcome one way or the other.

There isn’t a lot of data on this, as pollsters begrudgingly include all these ballot-certified candidates in their state polls over time, but back in December, we asked all voters across the country whether they leaned toward Biden, Trump, or a third-party candidate. Trump was the choice of 39%, Biden 37%, and a third-party option was selected by 17%.

And when we probed those third-party voters to pick between just Biden and Trump, Biden was the choice by a margin of 37% to 27%. Back then we really didn’t know who all the third-party candidates would be or whether the “No Labels” Party would even field a candidate. (They didn’t.)

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

But after Thursday night’s debate, the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll measured Biden’s poor debate performance and the resulting landscape shift that has essentially prevented those third-party voters from coming around to Biden. In fact, the debate produced a group of voters who are now not comfortable with voting for Biden as either a first or second choice.

In today’s poll, 25% of third-party supporters choose Trump next with Biden only receiving 17%, while 33% would vote for one of the other third-party candidates displaying a kind of collective thumbing-of-the-noses toward both political parties.

And Trump gets the better of the two among the poor job performers: Trump’s presidency gets a disapproval of 53% from third-party voters and Biden’s current presidency is disapproved by 71%. This is not surprising, given that that 82% of third-party voters say the country is on the wrong track.

We also asked these same voters who they voted for in 2020. When you combine RFK, West, and Stein voters, they voted for Biden over Trump 47% to 20% (+27) in 2020, a far cry from the 17% to 25% (-8), if the vote was today. With Trump leading right now in both the national and swing state polls, he is choking off this quietly valuable oxygen that the Biden campaign desperately needs in reserves to make it to the mountain top.

Going forward, Trump needs to break even among the third-party voters while Biden needs to win them back, just like in 2020.

Dig deeper:How much did debate hurt Biden's re-election bid? New poll offers insight.

Why are they important? Because 61% of the third-party voters in the poll say they may change their mind, compared to 12% of Trump voters and 10% of Biden voters. Could party conventions this summer make a difference? No: 64% of third-party voters said that neither the Democratic nor Republican Convention will change their mind.

Perhaps the biggest indicator of how Biden and Trump have lost these voters in 2024 is measured by the question of whether each party should replace them as the respective nominee of their party.

Certainly, the debate raised questions about whether Joe Biden should continue the fight or step aside, but these voters have no love lost for Trump either.

Third-party voters want them both out: a whopping 89% said that the Democratic Party should replace Biden as the nominee and 75% want the GOP to replace Trump. No wonder these voters won’t be tuning into the party conventions this summer.

Which takes us back to the “second choice preferences of third-party voters.”

Let’s face it, this election is not a binary choice (as Vice President Harris often says). It never is. Can you name me one state ballot that has only two choices for president this November?

In 2016, if most people who had voted for Jill Stein (and her pro-environment Green Party) in three key states had voted for Hillary Clinton instead, Trump wouldn't have won the presidency. Similarly, in 2020, if most people who voted for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen (and her “less government is better” platform) had voted for Donald Trump in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, Trump would have been reelected.

And in 2024, either Biden or Trump will lose by fewer votes someplace than the votes received by either Stein, West, RFK, or Oliver.

They will cost someone the election. The question is who?

David Paleologos is director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.